Solar flare size–waiting-time correlations in individual active regions

Abstract

We investigate solar flare size and waiting-time correlations within individual active regions (ARs) – where by size we mean soft X-ray peak flux – using a recent convolutional neural network (CNN)-based flare catalogue. We examine 1089 events during 2024 March 18–27, when four ARs (13614, 13615, 13617, and 13619) transited the disc. A probabilistic framework is developed to associate the CNN-detected events with their AR of origin, using extreme ultraviolet images. The ARs are observed to flare at different mean rates, ranging from (Formula presented) h(Formula presented) in AR 13617 and AR 13619 to (Formula presented) h(Formula presented) in AR 13615. The background-subtracted peak-flux di..